Keralam is heading into a long dry spell, and the rain it needs to refill its reservoirs may not come. The State has received 275.3 mm of rainfall as of November 2, against a normal of 323.6 mm for the period. That is a deficit of 15%.

The India Meteorological Department has warned of below-normal rainfall in Keralam during November. Its extended-range forecast shows bleak prospects for the next two weeks. The only relief in sight is light showers from an easterly wave, and those are expected only in isolated areas towards the end of this week.

Reservoirs are already running low

The timing could not be worse. Keralam normally receives 491.9 mm of rain during the northeast monsoon season, which runs from October to December. The bulk of that seasonal rain usually falls in October. This year, the State is entering November with its storage already thin.

The Idukki reservoir, which serves the State’s largest hydel power project, stands at just 62.74% of its total storage capacity. The Banasura Sagar reservoir in Wayanad is in better shape, with 78.33% of its capacity filled. Even so, both reservoirs were banking on substantial rainfall in the coming months to replenish their storage after a deficient southwest monsoon.

The southwest monsoon ended with a deficit of 28%. That leaves little room for error. Any further shortfall during the northeast monsoon could hit the State’s agricultural and power sectors hard.

What the IMD director is seeing

Neetha K. Gopal, Director of IMD, Keralam, told The Hindu that the State had recently experienced a brief spell of cooler nights towards the end of October. Atmospheric conditions had become stable, which dropped night-time temperatures and brought misty mornings. That calm weather is now part of the problem. Rain activity is likely to pause after this week, as easterly winds weaken.

The bigger question is whether the Bay of Bengal will produce any major weather systems in November at all. Gopal said an average of four to five cyclones form during the northeast monsoon season. Whether any major system develops this month, she said, remains to be seen.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is moving into an unfavourable (suppressed) phase for the region.

The MJO is a large-scale pattern of clouds and rainfall that moves eastward across the tropics. When it sits in a suppressed phase over the Indian Ocean region, it tends to block the formation of rain-bearing systems. For Keralam, that means the usual November rain bringers may stay away.

Andhra Pradesh is watching the same Bay of Bengal

The Bay of Bengal is busy, but not in Keralam’s favour. Keralam has spent nearly two weeks under scattered rainfall triggered by successive cyclones in the Bay of Bengal. Now, Cyclone Murasu is set to make landfall along the coast of Andhra Pradesh by Monday night or in the early hours of Tuesday. Once it passes, the Bay of Bengal is expected to stay largely free of significant weather systems.

For Andhra Pradesh, the cyclone brings the immediate weather threat. For Keralam, its arrival signals the end of the wet phase and the start of the dry one. The same system that drives the coastal storm on the east side of the peninsula also marks the moment Keralam’s rain window starts to close.

Why the dry spell matters beyond the rain gauge

Every dry day now matters more than it would in a normal year. The State’s reservoirs depend on the northeast monsoon to build back their storage. Without it, the cushion against the next summer shrinks. Power generation from hydel projects depends directly on water in the reservoirs. Farmers depend on the same water for crops and irrigation.

The numbers leave little comfort. The State is already short on rainfall for the season, its main reservoir is only partly full, and the forecast shows no meaningful rain for most of November. Each of those facts on its own would be a concern. Together, they point toward a tight water situation if the forecast holds.

The forecast is not guaranteed. Weather systems can still form, and the IMD has made clear that it is watching the Bay of Bengal closely. But the official outlook offers no quick rescue. Until the monthly forecast changes, Keralam’s reservoirs will likely be on their own.

Keralam’s water situation will be worth tracking through the rest of November. Watch the Idukki and Banasura Sagar levels, the next IMD updates, and whether any new system forms over the Bay of Bengal. Each of those will show whether the dry spell deepens or breaks.