Heavy rain is heading for south Tamil Nadu and will keep falling until November 8, the Regional Meteorological Centre has forecast, warning that a wet Deepavali is likely across the State this year.

Where the rain will hit first

The rainfall zone has shifted south after strengthening easterly winds and a cyclonic circulation pushed intense weather toward the region. Forecasters expect enhanced rainfall activity from November 5, with the heaviest showers concentrated over Theni, Dindigul and Madurai that day.

The wet spell is set to spread on November 6 to more districts, including Thoothukudi and Sivaganga. Officials say the rain will widen across southern and delta districts through the week.

On November 8, heavy rainfall is expected to cover Thanjavur, Ramanathapuram and Tiruvarur. Places along the Western Ghats have a chance of moderate rain this week, and several other locations are likely to see light showers.

A cyclone’s remains are driving the weather

The system behind the rain has a clear origin. Cyclone Murasu has weakened into a well-marked low pressure area, and the Northeast monsoon is returning to its active phase. That shift is what has brought the sustained wet weather back to the State.

V.R. Durai, Head of the Regional Weather Forecasting Centre, said an upper air cyclonic circulation over south Tamil Nadu and its neighbourhood would bring widespread rainfall, particularly over southern and delta districts, until November 8.

Festive plans now face a wet forecast

The timing could not be worse for many households. Deepavali is approaching, and the forecast points to a stretch of rain that could catch shoppers, travellers and families in the open during the busiest days of the festive period.

“Tamil Nadu is likely to experience a wet Deepavali this year,” said V.R. Durai, Head, Regional Weather Forecasting Centre.

That warning matters because the rain is not a brief burst. Officials expect the wet pattern to continue beyond the first few days, with easterly waves set to strengthen and bring a possibility of enhanced rainfall across Tamil Nadu, including coastal districts, after November 8.

Coast and north districts also under wet weather

The Regional Meteorological Centre has also said that north coastal districts of the State will see wet weather until November 8. The moist easterly winds that are strengthening over the region are behind that outlook.

Sharp showers already lashed Vellore on Wednesday, and the RMC’s three-day forecast for the north coast points to more of the same. The rainfall on Wednesday was recorded in several places, including Salem with 4 cm, Ramanathapuram and Krishnagiri with 3 cm each, Thanjavur with 2 cm, and Tirunelveli, with light to moderate rain recorded till 7 p.m.

The season is running wetter than normal

The rain is adding to a season that is already running ahead of expectations. Tamil Nadu’s seasonal rainfall stands at 11% surplus over the normal share of 20.2 cm recorded since October 1.

Officials said the ongoing wet weather is expected to push that surplus higher. The wet spell is also expected to keep the maximum temperature close to normal in most parts of the State until Sunday, which means the rain will not be offset by a sharp heat-driven change in conditions.

What residents should watch in the coming days

The next four days will decide how severe the disruption becomes. The first heavy rain is due in the Madurai belt on November 5, with the zone widening to Thoothukudi and Sivaganga on November 6. The delta districts and southern belt face the heaviest rain through November 8.

Residents in the affected districts should keep an eye on the official forecasts from the Regional Meteorological Centre as the situation develops. Anyone planning Deepavali travel, shopping trips or outdoor celebrations in south Tamil Nadu and the delta should build flexibility into their plans now, because the forecast offers little sign of a dry window before November 8.