Democrats are on course to win control of the US House of Representatives and are on their way to flipping the Senate, according to results from the US midterm elections. The party is calling it a historic night.

The first shock win came in the Senate, where Annie Andrews beat Darline Graham. Graham had been appointed to the seat after the death of her brother, Senator Lindsey Graham. Few analysts had that seat in play even a few months ago.

Two races that were considered battlegrounds a year ago turned into easy wins. Jon Ossoff won re-election in Georgia. In North Carolina, an open Republican-held seat went to former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper, who beat Republican Party insider Michael Whatley.

That North Carolina contest was the first of the four pickups Democrats need to wrest control of the Senate. With South Carolina in the bag, they are halfway home.

Texas, Kansas and Ohio Now in Focus

Attention has shifted to vote counts in Republican-held Senate seats in Texas, Kansas and Ohio. CBS News, a US broadcaster whose analysis is widely followed, is rating the Texas and Kansas Senate races as leaning Democrat.

The Texas governor’s race is the sharpest sign of how much the ground has moved. Incumbent Republican Greg Abbott was a prohibitive favourite just last year. Now the race is considered a toss-up.

For Democrats, the path to a Senate majority still runs through these three states. Winning even one or two of them would make the count far less dependent on the handful of races that were already expected to be close.

Florida’s Redistricting Plan Backfires

Republicans in the Florida state legislature redrew the boundaries of three Democratic-held seats to make them much easier to win. They lost all three.

Other House races in the state, where Republicans expected to win by comfortable margins, have turned into dogfights. The map was supposed to be a shield. Instead, it has exposed how fragile the GOP position is in parts of the state.

Florida as a whole still tilts to the right. Republican Senator Ashley Moody narrowly won re-election, and Congressman Byron Donalds won his bid for governor. But the Sunshine State may turn out to be one of the few bright spots for Republicans on a night that has been rough for them almost everywhere else.

Where the Wave Is Building

Democrats flipped open seats in western North Carolina and Kentucky. They also appear well placed to make gains in Virginia and Indiana, which would widen their House path.

They are doing it on the back of high Democratic turnout, particularly among Black voters in the South. They are also winning back Hispanic voters in Florida who had supported Republicans just two years ago.

In majority Black South Carolina counties, Andrews significantly outperformed Kamala Harris’s presidential numbers from 2024. In Miami-Dade County, which Trump carried that year, Democratic candidates are back on top. Those are two very different places showing the same direction of travel.

Why the Map Is Not Uniform

The mood of the electorate appears to have turned against President Donald Trump and Republicans across the board. That is the headline most voters will take away from this cycle.

But the United States is a vast country with distinct geographic and demographic characteristics. A strong night for Democrats on the East Coast does not automatically translate to the same results everywhere. Early results from the heartland, however, seem to be following the East Coast trend.

Vote counting is still underway in several key states, and the final shape of the Senate and House will depend on those results. For now, the direction is clear.

A Democratic wave has formed on the horizon. Now it’s just a question of exactly how far it crashes into Republican terrain.