Americans began voting Tuesday in midterm elections that will decide which party controls the House of Representatives and the Senate, turning the ballot into a direct test of President Donald Trump’s second term.
The vote covers all 435 seats in the House and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate. Voters in 36 states are also choosing governors. Midterms are traditionally read as a verdict on the sitting president, and this cycle is no different. Trump’s agenda and his policies sit at the center of the campaign.
What is at stake in Congress
Republicans are trying to hold on to their majorities in both chambers. Democrats are working to strengthen their position in the House and the Senate. The trends, however, point to a looser grip for Republicans and a boost for Democrats.
In the Senate, Republicans currently hold 53 seats. Democrats and the independents who vote with them have 47. Of the 35 seats in play, 22 are held by Republicans, which means the GOP has more to lose on the map.
The House is a different story. Republicans have a majority there too, but the margin is tight. A handful of seats shifting hands could change control of the chamber.
According to CNN’s Poll of Polls, Democrats need three seats to take the House and four to win the Senate. That is a short distance on a map this close.
If Democrats capture either chamber, the Trump administration could struggle to pass legislation and carry out its policies. A opposition-controlled chamber can slow bills, block nominees and force the White House into tougher negotiations for the remaining two years of the term.
Polls point toward Democrats
The three national surveys released before election day all show Democrats in front. John Zogby Strategies, surveying November 1 and 2, gave Democrats 53 percent support and Republicans 47 percent. YouGov’s October 30 poll had Democrats at 53 percent and Republicans at 44 percent. The PolityIQ national polling average showed Democrats at 52.7 percent and Republicans at 43.2 percent.
Taken together, the surveys put Democrats between 6 and 9.5 percentage points ahead. That is a favorable backdrop for the party, but these are national numbers, not seat-by-seat forecasts. They do not guarantee how individual races will turn out.
These numbers signal a favorable environment for Democrats, but they are national surveys and carry no guarantee of seat results.
History is not on the president’s side
Midterms have rarely been kind to the party holding the White House. Since 1946, the president’s party has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterm elections. Each cycle carries its own issues and conditions, and history is not a prediction. Still, the pattern gives Republicans little comfort heading into the count.
Early voting has already started the count
Before election day, roughly 54.5 million Americans had already cast their ballots, either in person or by mail. That early turnout will be part of the picture as the first results start coming in after polls close on Tuesday.
Texas, Michigan and the Senate map to watch
Several states are drawing outsized attention for their Senate races. Texas, Michigan, Alaska, Ohio and Kansas are the places where both parties have thrown their full weight into the fight.
In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton is facing Democrat James Talarico, a matchup that has dominated coverage. Michigan’s Senate seat is also a fierce contest, with both sides battling hard for every vote.
Prices, Iran and Trump’s record
Voters are heading to the polls with inflation and the cost of living at the top of their minds. Trump promised during the 2024 presidential campaign to get inflation under control and strengthen the American economy. Rising prices and fuel costs have since become a stubborn challenge for his administration.
The war with Iran is another central issue. The conflict and the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted the global energy market. On Tuesday morning, the US military struck Qeshm Island in Iran. The fallout has reached American gas stations, where petrol prices are affecting household budgets.
Foreign policy, tariffs and immigration decisions made by the Trump administration will also be measured at the ballot box. Voters’ verdict on those choices will be read by lawmakers, markets and governments far beyond US borders.
How big the electorate is
According to USAFacts, about 210 million Americans are registered to vote. California leads with 23.2 million registered voters, followed by Texas with 17.4 million and Florida with 13.6 million. Those three states together account for roughly 26 percent of the national total.
At the other end of the scale, Wyoming has 278,468 registered voters, Vermont has 459,455 and Alaska has 603,310, the smallest rolls in the country.
What comes next
Results start arriving after polling stations close on Tuesday. Whichever party wins the House and Senate will set the tone for the final two years of Trump’s term, deciding how much of his agenda can become law. For markets, allies and rivals watching from abroad, the answer will shape American policy on energy, trade and the war in the Gulf for years to come.
TL;DR
- US voters head to polls in midterms that will decide control of both chambers of Congress
- Democrats need 3 House seats and 4 Senate seats to flip control, according to CNN’s Poll of Polls
- All three national polls released before election day put Democrats ahead by 6 to 9.5 points
- About 54.5 million Americans had already voted early in person or by mail before Tuesday
- Since 1946, the president’s party has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterms
- Inflation, fuel prices and the Iran conflict are dominating voter concerns
