Ian Bremmer's take on the Venezuela crisis cuts deep into today's chaotic world order—it's like watching empires shift in real-time, which I've pondered over coffee chats. In his January 6, 2026, India Today interview, he calls the January 3 Caracas raid a tactical boost for Trump but a long-term US setback, eroding the rules-based system America championed. Trump's unilateral power play, sans allies or Congress, embodies 'G-Zero'—no global leaders, just jungle law. I nod along; it's symptomatic of decade-long trends Bremmer flagged in 2012.
Muted backlash from Russia, China, even uneasy Europe? Pure US might. But ditching alliances hurts America most, he warns—spot on, as reliability crumbles. Trump's 'run Venezuela' boast? Hyperbole without plan, 'regime roulette.' Oil at 800,000 barrels daily needs stability firms won't bet on post-Trump. In my opinion, this precedent risks emboldening foes, though Bremmer says Russia/China act independently. It's a wake-up: power sans principles backfires. Hope for balanced diplomacy ahead.
TL;DR
- Ian Bremmer describes US Maduro capture as short-term tactical win for Trump providing quick political boost.
- Warns operation undermines US global standing long-term in absence of leadership called G-Zero world.
- US walking away from own global order changing international rules to law of jungle where power trumps shared institutions.
- Trump not cause but symptom accelerant of trends Bremmer warned about since 2012 shift from G7 G20.
- Raid not discussed with allies or Congress leading to significant domestic international opposition.
- Global pushback muted from Russia China Iran; European allies uneasy but hold back criticism.
- US unmatched in projecting military force explaining restrained responses from others.
- America benefits most from rule of law alliances institutional checks weakened by sidelining them.
- Trump's claims to run Venezuela dismissed as unrealistic lacking concrete administration strategy.
- Current Venezuelan oil output low requiring extended reliable conditions for meaningful investment.
- Companies reluctant given short US presidential cycles and leadership change uncertainty after 2029.
- Raid symptomatic of broader erosion in coordinated multilateral governance structures.
- Highlights dangers of favouring short-term wins over sustained global credibility and partnerships.
