On September 10, daily commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to just seven ships as Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi movement captured the Red Sea port of Mocha and advanced toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, threatening a synchronized collapse of the world’s most critical maritime oil routes.

The alarming convergence of these two maritime crises has plunged global energy markets into a state of severe anxiety. With the Strait of Hormuz already severely restricted due to conflict and naval blockades, the imminent threat to Bab el-Mandeb removes the primary backup channel for global energy distribution. Shipping executives and energy analysts fear that the world’s logistical safety nets are rapidly eroding, leaving consumer economies vulnerable to unprecedented cost spikes and supply bottlenecks.

A Dramatic Collapse at the Strait of Hormuz

The situation in the Persian Gulf has reached a terrifying standstill. Prior to recent conflict, the Strait of Hormuz accommodated an average of 125 large commercial vessels daily, facilitating the passage of roughly 20.9 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum liquids during the first half of 2025. However, data from September 10 reveals that transit numbers crashed to a mere seven vessels. Coupled with a United States blockade halting Iranian crude exports, the world’s primary petroleum artery is operating at a fraction of its capacity, forcing international markets to search desperately for alternatives.

Houthi Offensive Encircled Strategic Chokepoint

Simultaneously, the Houthi movement has intensified its military push along Yemen’s southwestern coast. Having already established control over the major Red Sea port of Hodeidah, rebel forces recently seized Mocha and began pressing further south toward Dhubab and Perim Island. Perim Island sits directly inside the narrow, 29-kilometer-wide Bab el-Mandeb Strait, effectively splitting the passage into two shipping channels. Control or tactical targeted strikes from these positions grant the militia immense leverage over the southern gateway to the Suez Canal, connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea.

"Disruption at major energy chokepoints can cause supply delays and higher shipping costs, which can eventually push up global energy prices."

The Costly Cape of Good Hope Alternative

Even before the recent ground advances, persistent rebel attacks had already severely eroded shipping volume through Bab el-Mandeb. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), oil flows through the strait plummeted from 9.3 million barrels per day in 2023 down to 4.1 million barrels per day in 2024, hovering at 4.2 million barrels per day in the first half of 2025. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) transit through the waterway dropped near zero as major maritime operators—including Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, and energy giant BP—diverted their fleets to avoid existential security risks.

To keep oil moving, tankers have been forced to navigate around the southern tip of Africa via the Cape of Good Hope. EIA data reflects this massive realignment, with Cape crude flows jumping from 6.2 million barrels per day in 2023 to 9.3 million barrels per day in 2024, remaining at 9.1 million barrels per day through mid-2025. However, this detour comes at a staggering economic penalty. Circumnavigating Africa drastically extends transit times, drains fuel reserves, inflates marine insurance premiums, and reduces the global availability of active vessels.

Impact on India and the Wider Global Economy

The escalating blockade carries severe geopolitical and economic ramifications for India. Following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russian western oil exports shifted heavily away from European buyers toward Asian destinations, primarily India. These vital Russian crude and condensate flows rely heavily on the Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb corridor. While Russian-flagged or bound vessels were previously largely spared from direct Houthi strikes, any broader escalation or physical closing of the strait threatens to disrupt India’s crucial discount crude pipeline, triggering domestic fuel price instability.

On the global stage, the prospect of simultaneous breakdowns at both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb threatens to send shockwaves across international supply chains. Energy traders have reacted with immediate alarm: Brent crude briefly breached $109 per barrel on Friday following a 6 percent surge on Thursday, cementing a weekly increase of roughly 10 percent. As shipping capacity shrinks and freight fees skyrocket, elevated energy costs threaten to ripple far beyond petrol stations, driving up manufacturing overhead, global freight rates, and broader consumer inflation worldwide.